Scrap blending will potentially increase in the blast furnace route with quality enhancements and converter retrofits. The growth of short- and medium-term battery storage, to enable carbon-free power when renewables or other carbon-free options are not available. We assume that technological advancement and bulk efficiencies will allow a maximum capture rate of about 20-25% in advanced economies such as the US and EU. 3. Forecasted world HRC benchmark steel price for 2023. 14th December 2021 MEPS has lowered its annual crude steel production forecast to 1,940 million tonnes, for 2021. India and Southeast Asia, the key demand drivers, will buck this trend as most capacity additions are via the BF-BOF route. Steel Production in the United States averaged 7832.96 Thousand Tonnes from 1969 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 11951.00 Thousand Tonnes in May of 1973 and a record low of 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes in April of 2009. Annual production for China was 870.8 million metric tons of crude steel in 2017 . The scrap ratio will continue to increase from 2020 to 2030 in China and is expected to reach 0.366 by 2030. The policy is also applicable to purchase of iron & steel products by private agencies for fulfilling an EPC contract and capital goods required for manufacturing iron & steel products. We compared two scenarios, keeping a green line and true change. The first scenario assumes that the current steel market will in many parts remain constant, and the second assumes a more sustainable world in which significantly more recycling occurs and use of resources is more circular. Steel demand is anticipated to grow by roughly four percent between 2020 and 2021. These are global steel statistics per country, including the main top steel-producing countries, China, Japan, India, and USA. Alternatively call us on +44(0)1179257019. China, South Korea and Japan, for instance, all had a demand of over 500 kilograms per capita in 2020, despite dented output through Covid-19. Steel Price Prediction 2031 The price of 1 Steel is expected to reach at a minimum level of $0.045 in 2031. Baselining. Steel production will reach its peak of 901 million tons in 2020. To meet global energy and climate goals, emissions from the steel industry must fall by at least 50% by 2050, with continuing declines towards zero emissions being pursued thereafter. Steel industrys carbon emissions is expected to fall 30% by 2050 compared to 2021 levels, according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business (Nasdaq:VRSK). Capture rates can be improved by increasing the reliance on smelting reduction technologies such as HIsarna and Corex, that produce top-gas with much higher carbon concentrations. 500 Production sites in the EU The EU steel industry has 500 production sites spread out across 22 EU Member States. One obvious measure to mitigate emissions is to increase the share of scrap steel being used in the place of primary steel, which relies on the extraction and processing of iron ore and currently accounts for more than 65% of crude steel production. Stocks. In this scenario, steel producers would be forced to increase their use of scrap, rather than primary materials, as a source of steel. EAF production will increase at a constant rate from 63 Mt in 2010 to 153 Mt in. It will not happen by itself. Wu said: Blast furnace gas emissions are complex, and it is challenging to separate carbon from them. Find out about the world, a region, or a country . The global average for steel demand per capita will rise from 235 kilograms to 312 kilograms per year. Get Started. However, with global steel giants like ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel, Posco, and Chinas Buowu Steel Group pledging themselves to net zero emissions of their own accord, this primary production, itself will also face dramatic transformation. The average annual growth rate of steel production and steel scrap consumption in China was unmatched at 15.6% and 9.5%, respectively, which resulted in insufficient steel scrap resources and a decrease in steel scrap consumption per ton steel. Research & Technology Center: Process Technology, Research & Technology Center: Product Technology, Material Topics and Stakeholder Engagement. Hydrogen-based steel production will eventually account for 10% of the total steel output or 232 million tonnes (Mt) by 2050. This will make it easier to separate carbon from other impurities. Steel is the most used metal in our modern world, but its production is highly energy- and carbon- intensive. as being developed by the COURSE50, IGAR and 3D projects), including CCUS retrofits to existing blast furnaces and those newly installed over the coming decade. Global cement consumption can contract to 4.01 billion tons in 2050, according to CW Research's long-term forecast available in the 1H2019 update of the Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR).. This page has Steel Production values for China. While in China the available scrap steel will now start to increase as more consumer goods, vehicles, and eventually buildings which account for 50% of demand enter retirement, the same issues will soon be faced by countries in earlier stages of economic growth and the steel demand cycle. The global climate crisis poses challenges that differ in nature and are far beyond the scope of those that our society has faced during the 20th century. Construction, automotive to return to 2019 level in 2022. In November 2019, U. S. Steel announced our first greenhouse gas reduction goal of a 20% reduction in GHG intensity by 2030 from a 2018 baseline. This includes our previously announced Memorandum of Understanding with Equinor to jointly study the potential for carbon capture and storage and hydrogen development in the Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia region, as well as the recently announced alliance facilitated by IN-2-Market focusing on establishing a regional low-carbon and hydrogen industrial hub in the Northern Appalachian Region. Wood Mackenzie research director Malan Wu said: The global share of electric arc furnace (EAF) in steelmaking is rising with policy shifts and increasing focus on scrap use. In the coming weeks, Rethink Energy will release its Future of Steel report to address the penetration of these decarbonizing technologies in key markets, and the implications the transition will have on stakeholders throughout the steel and energy sectors. worldsteel publishes monthly production statistics for crude steel, direct reduced iron (DRI) and blast furnace iron (BFI). Consequently, primary producers may face reduced demand. BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. This webpage contains information that may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The World Steel Association (worldsteel) consider that global steel demand in 2022 will grow by 2.2% over 2021 levels (from ~1855 million tonnes in 2021, to ~1896 million tonnes in 2022). Mining and metals will continue to play an important role in the world economy in both scenarios, but the projected outcomes differ, thus offering sharp insights into the possible future of steel (and, to some extent, other markets within the mining and metal sector). Depending on the availability of carbon-free energy, we anticipate that these efforts will result in a reduction of 3-6% in GHG emissions intensity. For existing operations, we are continuously striving to use less energy, whether that energy is from purchased electricity, purchased natural gas, or the coal and coke used in our processes. This page has Steel Production values for several countries. Indicators. In the US, for example, the scrap share of metallic inputs into steel production was 72% in 2019. We have already made progress in this area with our acquisition of Big River Steel and completion of the construction of the Fairfield Works Tubular EAF, which resulted in approximately a 10-15% reduction in our GHG emissions intensity. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. This includes construction and manufacturing, which are the. Nevertheless, this figure is a new peak for global steelmaking, and represents year-on-year growth of 3.4 percent. Increased deployment of carbon-free energy sources such as nuclear, hydro, solar, and wind power, Increased ability of the grid to transport electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed, and. Get the latest from the U. S. Steel newsroom, browse our publications and request permission to access our digital image library. At the current rate of global development, even if all global scrap were captured and recycled and processed (1.3 tons of scrap is typically needed for 1.0 ton of crude steel), it could only account for 36% of metallic inputs. Steel as a Model for a Sustainable Metal Industry in 2050, Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, The CEOs Dilemma: Business Resilience in a Time of Uncertainty, Mining and Metals in a Sustainable World 2050, consistently assessing their position in a more sustainable world and reflecting upon different scenarios for the future. Growth forecasts point to a 30% increase in steel production by 2050 5, which clearly means that without change, the steel industry will be adding to global emissions stocks instead of supporting emission reduction goals. However, caution should be taken not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements because such statements speak only as of the date when made. Steel production by country and region However, there are several significant differences in the forecasts when considering several countries and/or regions - especially in the case of China and India: China . The production forecast suggests that the peak of world production . While the Covid-19 pandemic did not contribute to a noticeable slump in. We are working with various universities and the United States Department of Energy on a number of different projects to reduce energy and increase efficiency in our operations. BOF's share of total steel production will decrease at a constant rate from 90% in 2010 to 70% in 2050. Commercial DRI-EAF with CCUS includes gas- and coal-based DRI with CCUS. Learn about U. S. Steelfrom our direction, our people and passion for innovation to our community philosophy, ethics policies, locations and more. Rethink Energy currently predicts that it will rise by 43% over the next three decades. The two scenarios share the same underlying steel-demand assumptions, with production overcapacity remaining prevalent for the next decade. In 2021, the growth in demand increased by 4.5 percent, up from just 0.1 percent in 2020. Management believes that these forward-looking statements are reasonable as of the time made. True Change. The model also enabled projections of demand for other primary steel-making materials, such as iron ore and metallurgical coal. following this logic, pure hydrogen-based steel production is expected to be cash cost competitive between 2030 and 2040 in europe. Steel Production in India averaged 3770.19 Thousand Tonnes from 1980 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 10900.00 Thousand Tonnes in March of 2022 and a record low of 0.00 Thousand Tonnes in January of 1987. Although petroleum and other liquid fuels will remain the world's largest energy source in 2050, renewable energy sources, which include solar and wind, will grow to nearly the same . This second mini mill is expected to be operational in 2024, and with its incorporation of endless casting and rolling technology, we expect to further reduce GHG emissions intensity versus other thin slab casting technologies. The global steel industry accounts for up to 9% of worldwide emissions and nearly 20% of its coal consumption. WalletInvestor 's steel price forecast for 2025 saw the price rising to $1,541.22 by year-end. Mining and Metals in a Sustainable World 2050will be a dominant topic on both public and private agendas. The lions share of the primary production more than 70% of it is undertaken in a process using blast furnaces (BF) and basic oxygen furnaces (BOF), both of which use coke, a derivative of coal, at temperatures of over 1,200 degrees Celsius. The model tracks the functional age of facilities. Learn more about how you can grow professionally and personally by joining a team whose members are as strong and innovative as the advanced material they make for our future. 100% H2 DRI-EAF comprises fully electrolytic hydrogen-based DRI (e.g. Innovative BF-BOF with CCUS includes blast furnaces with process gas hydrogen enrichment and CO2 removal for use and storage (e.g. In FY22, India's export rose by 25.1% YoY, compared with 2021. Commercial SR-BOF refers to smelting reduction without CCUS (COREX and FINEX). 11 as a consequenceand leaving aside environmental issues and any potential public concerns and investor fallout from not meeting carbon dioxide emission targetsthe industry is likely to see the first large-scale The minimum domestic value addition of 20% to 50% has been made mandatory for notified iron and steel products which are covered under preferential procurement. Other factorssuch as global growth and material substitutionswill play a role in determining future recycling rates. intensity . DATA Download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. We are working with our supplying utilities on improving access to carbon-free electricity, whether through direct investment, virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs), or retiring credits. Scrap steel, as a result, only accounts for 25% of the countrys metallic inputs for crude production. Worldwide, the scenario envisions, both routes would use scrap to maximum capacity: 25 percent for the oxygen routes and almost 100 percent for the electric routes. Homepage Countries Indicators Calendar Forecasts Ratings. Our forecasts are formulated by our dedicated team of expert steel price analysts, and include a concise commentary . Sign-in to our platforms to access our extensive research, our latest insight, data and analytics and to connect to our industry experts. For mining players, the different scenarios mean different things. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. The sector produces on average 125 billion of finished steel per year. The keeping a green line scenario envisions limited changes. However, nearly two-thirds of incremental supply between 2021 and 2050 will materialise from India and Southeast Asia cushioning the negative impact on hot metal., Short-term analytics (previously Genscape), Supply Chain Intelligence platform (previously PowerAdvocate Energy Intelligence Platform), Steel industry emissions to decline 30% by 2050. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the risks and uncertainties described on this webpage and in Item 1A. SAF is a Fantasy, and not the TRUE route for decarbonization, Global EV markets rally despite weak overall car sales, PV installs explode despite hurdles jump 87 GW, more to come, Talking with Investors: Future Energy Ventures, Pipelines and Organic Carrier Ships to Dominate Hydrogen Distribution, Natural gas market adjustments show prices to fall after 2024, Talking with start-ups: Can this rival the hydrogen sector - a battery that's a fuel, Talking with Start ups: Electrovaya on the brink of solid state batteries, To contact Rethink please email us at [emailprotected] Integrating EAF capabilities into our footprint is key to achieving our 2030 GHG goal. Thank you for subscribing. 2.6. Steel in the average building has a lifecycle of 43 years, vehicles typically last around 19 years, while machinery and consumer goods have lifetimes of 22 years and 10 years respectively. This will make up 5% emission savings of the 30% carbon emissions decline by 2050. However, these technologies have yet to prove their commercial viability, even after being deployed in Asia and Europe.. But while the concept of a circular economy continues to gather momentum, why is scrap steel still dwarfed by iron ore as a feedstock material? In the first scenario, demand for these two commodities will continue to increase although growth will slow. Integrating EAF capabilities into our footprint. The shift will also be driven by Chinas increasing adoption of electric arc furnaces, whose share of production will rise from 10 percent in the next decades, assisted by fresh flows of scrap resulting from Chinas late industrialization and an increase in collection rates to more than 90 percent. ), Demand for scrap steel will increase dramatically. In a society with an encompassing, albeit blurry, objective of sustainability, one primary aim is to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth. According to steel production forecasts, the calculated scrap ratio. Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drive positive societal impact. Cobalt production could also increase indirectly because of an increase in the demand for manganese to cater to the production of steel. Generally, we have identified such forward-looking statements by using the words believe, expect, intend, estimate, anticipate, project, target, forecast, aim, should, will, "may" and similar expressions or by using future dates in connection with any discussion of, among other things, statements about our future business operations, our new product offerings, our market risk, the construction or operation of new or existing facilities, improvement or availability of existing and developing technologies, and our risk management, including climate-related risks and opportunities. In the Radical scenario, global steel demand grows by 0.4% per annum to reach 1.75 billion tonnes by 2035, which is 12.5% below the baseline forecast of 2.0 billion tonnes Baseline Global Demand Forecast Under Disruption - Overall In the baseline forecast, global steel demand grows by 1.4% per annum to reach around 2.0 billion tons by 2035 Basic oxygen furnace (BOF) output will decline 0.5% annually until 2050, whereas EAF output could increase 2.3% yearly in the same period. Procurement, October 07, 2015 Steel 2050: How Steel Transformed the World and Now Must Transform Itself 1st Edition by Rod Beddows (Author) 9 ratings ISBN-13: 978-0993038105 ISBN-10: 0993038107 Why is ISBN important? All rights reserved. Even in this scenario, the use of scrap in the steel-making process will take on a more important role over time, with a corresponding decline in demand for primary resources (iron ore and metallurgical coal). China is expected to take the lead in reducing absolute emissions. 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